NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 5.29.25
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It was a new series, but the same result for our testing model on Tuesday, as it missed on the Knicks +2.5. For a quick second late in the 4th quarter, it looked like we may be in for another wild comeback from New York, but we had no such luck as Indiana closed it out relatively stress-free. The Pacers now head into MSG tonight with a 3-1 series lead.
I’ve mentioned before that modeling the NBA playoffs hasn’t been the most fun part of the Orb project as a whole so far. Just like the NFL, the regular season may be less interesting to watch compared to the postseason, but it was far more interesting to try to model. We are no strangers to the decline in sample size of games to predict each postseason, this happens to us as well in the NFL. The repetitiveness of matchups, however, is taken to a whole new level in a league like the NBA or NHL. Sample size is still something I am trying to balance for all of our models, current and future. Too large samples of a sample size, like our NFL 1.0 model, which predicted every single game, and the math will drag you down (or sometimes up) to the expected 50% accuracy against the spread. Too small of a sample size, like we have now in the NBA playoffs, and your results become ‘all-or-nothing’ with each night finishing at 100% or 0% accuracy. Aspects like winning/losing streaks, model over-indexing, and repetitive picks are also magnified. Needless to say, I cannot wait for that first 3-2, 60% performance of the NFL regular season.
Knicks +2.5 (-104) ❌
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 34-32, 51.5%, -0.7 units
Playoff Record: 9-8, 52.9%, +0.4 units
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Here is what our model predicts for Game 5:
Knicks -4.5 (+102)
- Team Orb Analytics
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