Navigating Vibes: NBA Play-In Vibes Explained

Via Sports Illustrated

I would like to start this off by saying welcome back to all of you. While you enjoyed your NFL Sundays, I was in the lab. While your fantasy teams floundered by week 5, I was crunching tape. While you were enthralled by Taylor Swift’s flight patterns, I was watching OKC vs Sacramento on a cold Monday night in January. That’s right folks, now that football is far in the rearview mirror and the frenzy of the NCAA tournament has come and gone, you all have no choice but to come crawling back to the sport with way too many games and far too little gambling attention. NBA HOOPS. IS. BACK. I would like to first thank The Orb for bringing me on to share my thoughts on the NBA as we approach the culmination of 82 games and head into the playoffs. I am here to provide context, frustrations, fears, and most importantly, picks. 

Disclaimer: While I understand The Orb's football picks are driven by analytics, I navigate the NBA betting landscape by vibes. Having watched the entirety of the season, I can assure you that my vibe calibrator is strong–perhaps not as strong as an algorithm, but strong, nonetheless. I provide insights that a computer simply cannot. For example, what city the Clippers are playing in and the relative number of Gentlemen’s Clubs in the area will surely be relevant to James Harden’s performance the following night. Math can’t give you those insights, but my vibes-driven analysis sure can. You will find my picks for the Play-In Tournament, based on these vibes, at the end of this post. Okay, let’s hop into it. 

The Title Favorites

Boston Celtics (+165) - If you’ve been passively following the league at all, you know the Celtics have been on an absolute tear this regular season. They astonishingly wrapped up the number 1 seed in the Eastern Conference over a month before the season ended. The additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday have proven to be even more impactful than the most optimistic Celtics fan could have dreamt. The two stars of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have also continued their growth into arguably the best duo in basketball. It’s plain and simple, from top to bottom they are the best team in basketball. 

Here’s the thing though–the vibes, at times, are somewhat erratic with this team. Thankfully for them, their average margin of victory this season is in double digits. However, when the games get close and we enter crunch time, there is something that seems to be lacking with this team. Their highly productive offense slows down and turns into an iso-driven, stepback jumper brickfest at the worst times. The question will continue to be whether or not they will execute down the stretch of games. That, along with a heavy reliance on Porzingis, (who isn’t exactly the most durable of players) leaves me unsure. 

That being said, the rest of the Eastern Conference is extraordinarily weak in comparison. At an astounding +165 to win the title, there is very little value in this bet, but most experts would tell you they would be fairly surprised if anyone else made it out of the East. 

Denver Nuggets (+300) - The reigning champs come in at the number 2 spot in title odds. You could argue they should be the favorite, considering they’ve beaten Boston in both of their matchups this season and have the best player on the planet in Nikola Jokic. Denver has had a strong regular season, although not as dominant as Boston. A slow start is fairly standard for a reigning champ coming off of a summer of partying and celebrating their title– or, if you’re Jokic, watching horse races in Serbia. 

After taking their time to get rolling in the early stretch of the season, the Nuggets have seemingly rounded into championship shape. Jokic looks primed for his third MVP in 4 years and the supporting cast looks promising. They’ve continually won big games against teams with title aspirations. And in contrast to the Celtics, have consistently executed down the stretch of close games thanks to the most unguardable two-man game in the league with his sidekick Jamal Murray. Jokic does it all for this team–he’s the engine, the driver, the wheels, the trunk, and the seatbelt. Denver goes as Jokic goes, and he’s proven to be up for the task leading them to a dominant playoff and title run last year. 

The difference between this year and last is the rest of the conference. Multiple teams have taken significant leaps, so we will have to see who can muster up a real challenge for the reigning champs. I will also say in terms of vibes, it doesn’t really get much better than the Nuggets. Jokic appears to just be a joy to play with, ask Aaron Gordon. Also, the duo with Murray is battle tested and I love when teams know what they are getting into offensively at the end of games. Not only does Denver know who they are, they've proven they know how to get there. +300 isn’t the greatest value, but considering they should probably be the favorites, this is about as good a price as you’ll get them at. 

The (Maybe) Contenders

Los Angeles Clippers (+1400) - I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. Do not bet on this team. I repeat, do not bet on this team. I could provide some analysis on their dynamic offense and elite defense, as well as some contrasting points on their best players' previous postseason flameouts and general apathy for the game of basketball at times, but all of that seems unnecessary when discussing this specific franchise. Save your money, don’t do it. The Clippers are cursed and the universe has already shown us they are not allowed to have good things happen to them. 

Oklahoma City Thunder (+1600) - In a surprising rise from a spunky, young team to an elite, well-rounded group fighting for the number 1 seed in the west, we have a team I’m sure most of you have not watched a single game of: the Thunder. With the average age of their starting five being younger than the starting five of the University of North Carolina, this team has been defying all NBA precedent. Led by the third favorite in MVP odds, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder have dominated this regular season and their youth has yet to matter. 

Alongside a great number two scorer you probably haven’t heard of in Jalen Williams and rookie big man Chet Holmgren, this team is poised to make the leap. That being said, their inexperience may come back to bite them as we haven’t seen a team this young do anything in the playoffs since, well, the Oklahoma City Thunder back in 2012. Along with their youth, their lack of size on the interior will make the playoffs a significant challenge when they end up facing the likes of Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, or Anthony Davis. I’ll keep an eye on matchups and make my picks on them accordingly, but if their reward for a top-two seed is Lebron and Anthony Davis, we may have an upset watch on our hands. 

Dallas Mavericks (+1700) - This team might be the best value in terms of future bets. With Luka Doncic making his best MVP campaign of his young career, you’d struggle to find a team playing better than the Mavericks over the last two months. With some sneaky trade-deadline acquisitions, a resurgent defense, and a rejuvenated Kyrie Irving they will be a tough out for anyone in the West. The most shocking thing of all is that we have had a normal Kyrie season for the first time in maybe six years? After doing nothing in his post-Lebron era other than take controversial stances on any hot-button issue of the day, to flat-out playing like a shell of himself in recent playoff runs, we finally are being reminded of why we all fell in love with his game in the first place. Kyrie is so good he’s made Luka actually pass the ball! They have been a joy to watch and have the star power to match up with any threat they come across. The only thing giving me pause is they have become every analyst's “sexy” pick. +1700 is good value for this team who’s getting hot at just the right time but if you know anything about vibe navigation, it’s to be very wary of the team that everyone loves. 

Minnesota Timberwolves (+1900) - What a year this has been–the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves are legitimate(ish) title contenders. The Timberwolves bounced back after a disappointing first year of the Rudy Gobert experience. Gobert and Karl Anthony-Towns surprisingly developed some chemistry and were able to figure out how to play alongside each other to make up one of the more interesting front courts in the league. However, the real story here is their young superstar, Anthony Edwards. If we want to talk vibes, Edwards has all of them. This season he has truly taken “the leap” and his raw athleticism has been paired with a more consistent jumpshot and decision-making that has elevated the Timberwolves to find themselves at the top of the western standings. He has the confidence of someone who believes they are the best player on the floor in any game and has come up big in multiple spots during the season. 

They are also a TOUGH matchup for Denver, with Towns being cleared to come back from injury just in time for the playoffs. They have the size and athletes to cause Jokic problems. In terms of value in the West, we have to look at the teams who can realistically beat Denver, and Minnesota might be at the top of that list. +1800 is a decent value considering the matchups problems they pose to Denver on paper. That being said KAT and Gobert have been notorious for their postseason shortcomings and just being generally irritating. If they can keep their composure and Edwards can remain a stud through a deep playoff run, the T-Wolves may have a chance at their second conference finals appearance in franchise history. 

Alright, that’s enough of a breakdown, let’s dive into my first official picks of my orb career. 

Disclaimer: You will notice I have not made picks for the Warriors-Kings or Heat-Sixers games. These games turned my vibe calibrator schizophrenic and resulted in a “no result” when attempting to make a read. I don’t make the rules, I just follow the vibes. 

NBA PLAY IN PICKS:

Lakers +1.5 vs Pelicans - This pick is relatively straightforward. It’s a healthy(ish) Lebron James and Anthony Davis in the postseason. The Lakers have had a strong stretch to end the regular season and salvaged what looked like a lost cause. They find themselves in the 8-seed traveling to New Orleans for the rights to the 7-seed in the Western Conference. Not only have the Lakers been playing their best basketball of the season, but they are also coming off a dominating win against the team they will be facing off against the Pelicans. Lebron looked ready for yet another playoff push and displayed his experience against a Pelicans team who needed to win in order to stay out of the play-in tournament all together. It’s plain and simple, I won’t be passing up an opportunity to bet on Lebron James in a high-stakes game against an unproven team like the Pelicans. Hammer the Lakers, thank me later.

 

Bulls -3 vs Hawks - I know what you’re thinking, I have better things to do on a Wednesday night than watch Alex Caruso vs Dejounte Murray. And honestly, you might be right. However, you may as well make some money while you’re at it. My vibe calibrator is screaming at me to hammer Chicago in this matchup. The main reason being Atlanta could not have less going for them right now. The Trae Young and Murray partnership has been an outright bust and aside from a random act of god allowing them to beat the Celtics twice in a row (both games without Trae) the Hawks are ready for the off-season. This may very well be Trae’s last year with the team as trade rumors persist and I see a Hawks team ready to pack it in. If that wasn’t enough reason to fade the Hawks let’s look at the Bulls. I am not going to pretend like this team is good, because they are not. But there’s something about them that keeps triggering my vibe meter. They straight-up have dudes. Demar Derozen is a dude, Alex Caruso is a dude, Coby White is a dude, Nikola Vucevic is a dude! Did I mention they have dudes!? You could argue the Bulls should have been sellers at the trade deadline to get off these expensive contracts but they went the other way. In true Bulls fashion, they set their eyes on mediocrity and pitching their fans on the play-in as actual postseason success. This is the Bulls’ championship. They have nothing to sell their fans on other than these games as they’ve constructed this expensive roster with little to no wiggle room. That, coupled with one of the best crunch-time scorers in the league in Derozen makes me LOVE Chicago on Wednesday night. That’s the pick, hammer it, and honestly would not judge you if you don’t watch it. Just enjoy the payout. 

Happy Betting (Responsibly),

Vibe Navigator

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