Masters 1000 - Madrid Open Preview: Blue Bloods, Hot Hands, and Dark Horses
Orb Faithful,
I would say that I'm back, but that isn't true. Orb Wizard and I have been making plays all off-season, so while I haven't been on the keyboard blogging, we have made great strides by finding fantastic new content writers and becoming an incorporated company. It had always been a dream of mine to become a creative director, and to have done it by 26 is surreal. I'm excited to see what else we can achieve over the next NFL season and how many more milestones we can accomplish.
One of the primary goals we set to achieve this off-season was making Orb Analytics Limited a 365-day-a-year company. Finding the right writers to cover as many professional sports as possible. This was the green light for me to start writing about my favorite and most-watched sport, Tennis. Behind the scenes, I watch and follow along with the ATP more than any other professional sport. In the year 2024, we are experiencing some of the best Tennis that the game has ever seen. This sport has a bright future ahead of itself, and it's a great time to grow out of another corner of the blog and find like-minded individuals who also love Tennis. When it comes to wagering, Tennis is also in a class of its own. In these blogs, I will mainly be focused on giving out game spreads and moneyline picks.
I've had some exciting success using simple data analytics to utilize game projections for Player A vs. Player B. The equation finds the projected games won in a match for both players. That is found by dividing each player's games played in by the games they won thus far in the season. After comparing the difference between both players to the Vegas line, I look for disparities. If there are significant disparities, I take the player (usually the underdog for +money). To conclude, the picks in these ATP blogs will be a mixture of what my eyes tell me and going off simple math to spot significant disparities in gambling lines. Easy enough.
Now, if you have been locked into Tennis as I have, you would know that we are currently in the "Clay Season" of 2024. Casper Ruud just lifted his first ATP tour title this year in Barcelona, while Stefanos Tsitsipas cemented his legacy as the guy in Monte Carlo with his third Championship. Our next major tournament is the Masters 1000 level Mutua Madrid Open. Madrid, alongside Rome, are the last two opportunities for players to find their best Tennis before the grand ball, Rolland Garros.
With Novak Djokovic withdrawing from Madrid, these are the players to look for:
Blue Bloods:
Jannik Sinner
Sinner has been the man to beat this year with his red hot 25-2 start and his Grand Slam win in Australia. I’m not going to go into too many details other than we should see a semi final appearance from the Italian.
Carlos Alcaraz
There is no Batman without the Joker, Carlitos is the other side of the coin to Sinner. After taking some time off to heal a forearm injury Alcaraz looks to defend his title and add another Masters 1000 trophy to his 2024 season. The advantage that Carlos has is his comfort on the clay, again another semi final appearance wouldn’t be surprising.
Hot Hands:
Casper Ruud
Ruud as mentioned earlier just lifted a trophy in Barcelona and is as hot as hot could be. While he hasn’t had a 2024 year filled with hardware, Ruud is a talent on clay. Look for him to continue his hot streak and make a quarterfinal appearance.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
I’ll be honest here I’m not a big Tsitsipas guy at all, but he is a clay court specialist and his 2024 is starting to heat up nicely with his third win in Monte Carlo and a finals appearance in Barcelona. Can Stef stay on his front font in Madrid, I’m not sure but it would be dishonest to not mention him in this preview.
Alexander Zverev
A two time Madrid Open winner, the German has found his happy place in Madrid and thats always something to look out for. Depending on his draw and how many questions he will have to answer to reach a final, his winning past could be the difference.
Dark Horses:
Alex de Minaur
The demon. This guy made Rafa look like an elderly man in Barcelona. That doesn’t mean what it use to mean even 5 years ago, but de Minaur is a robotic, on time, well thought out tennis player. I see his “ceiling” as a quarterfinal appearance but noone wants to find him in the round of 64. Textbook Dark Horse.
Ben Shelton
The new face of USA mens tennis. Ben Shelton is primetime box office Tennis entertainment. The US needed Ben in a bad way, its embarrassing how poor the level of US Mens Tennis is outside of him, Fritz, and (maybe) Tommy Paul. Shelton also just had a great showing in Houston winning his first clay title and in the same way as de Minaur; noone wants to play him early rounds.
Alexei Popyrin
A young Australian that I promise you have never hear of before. I enjoy watching Popyrin play a lot. Tall + Long player with a big first serve. He has the opportunity to play Holger Rune in the round of 64 and I love him to cover the game spread whatever it is. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if I end up taking him to win outright either. A big vibes pick!
Once lines come out for the round of 64 I’ll do breakdowns of marquee matchups that I like and give away my picks for who will be the last man standing in Madrid ( I like de Minaur ). More to come, welcome to the clay.
- Andy Tenniscourts
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