Home Run Derby 2024 Predictions
The MLB All Star Break, the Midsummer Classic, whatever you prefer to call it, we have reached that glorious week in the summer when all eyes are on baseball. All other sports have concluded for the year and it's not late enough in the summer for people to move their focus on to football… It is in my opinion the best time of the year. MLB has long been applauded for having the best opportunity to show off their talent, the Home Run Derby. There is something about the Derby that is almost as American as the sport itself, Chevrolet, and apple pie. Every little kid has a memory of going out into the backyard and playing wiffle ball Home Run Derby, dreaming of one day doing it on the big stage. Each baseball fan has their own unique memory of watching a Derby moment, whether it was Josh Hamilton’s impressive display of 28 homers in a row in 2008, or Bryce Harper winning as the hometown participant with his dad pitching to him in 2019.
Why is the Home Run Derby such a powerful piece of baseball nostalgia? I think there is a simple answer, putting the barrel on a baseball is hard (the hardest thing to do in sports in my opinion). So when fans old and young alike see how consistently and how easy these stars make bashing balls 440 plus feet into the night sky look, it can only inspire a mythological sense of awe.
Before we get into some actual picks, let's break down a few of the new rule changes that were announced a few weeks ago. The head to head bracket style tournament fans have gotten accustomed to over the past few years, replaced by a more traditional top 4 hitters advancing in the first round, and the top two advancing to the finals after the second round. Timing is different this year too with rounds being shortened to 3 minutes or 40 pitches whichever comes first.
So lets talk players I think could win (Lines according to CBS Sports):
Favorite- Pete Alonso (+280) if you are looking for a pure chalk pick Alonso is your man this is his MLB record fifth derby and he's going for his third win. In a somewhat underwhelming field this year Alonso could have a pretty easy path to at least the finals.
Best Value- Gunnar Henderson (+475) Baltimore’s breakout sophomore sensation in Henderson is my personal pick to win. I think MLB did something amazing for the sport by including two young superstars in this year’s derby (Henderson and the Royals Bobby Witt). Henderson may not be the flashiest pick but he has the hardest exit average velocity of any participant and anyone who has watched him this year knows, when he squares one up its long long gone.
Longshot- Jose Ramirez (+1300) I wouldn’t be a gambler if I didn't give you a pick with the highest potential payoff. The little man with a big swing should be a fan favorite and someone to keep your eye on if you're looking to take a little risk. Ramirez has been one of the sport’s most underrated stars, and power hitters. As someone that has gotten the opportunity to watch JRam do his thing at many BP sessions in Cleveland I think he is going to surprise some folks and put on quite the show.
-Kaufy
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