Divisional Round Results: The Chiefs Can't Keep Getting Away With This
What an exciting weekend of football and what a terrible performance from our models. Last weekend we had lackluster games and accurate predictions only for both to flip in the Divisional Round. Our 2-0 start against the spread in the playoffs was dragged down to 2-2, the statistically expected and dreaded 50% mark.
Both picks missed by a combined 5 points, but close doesn’t get you anywhere in this game. A losing pick is a losing pick. I will back up the models on their prediction that the Texans would keep it within the 8.5 points. This might be a good example of the “right pick that misses” that I’ve talked about before. The Chiefs played all the hits on what has made them frustrating to watch this season. Multiple roughing-the-passer calls that were bad enough to get Troy Aikman to speak out against the refs gifted Kansas City the field position to score points that I’m not sure they earned. The biggest story from a Houston backer’s standpoint was the field goal kicking. The Texans missed a field goal, and an extra point and still somehow had a chance to cover at the end with a field goal attempt that was of course blocked. Per ESPNStatsInfo on Twitter, “The Texans are the first team to out gain their opponent by 100+ yards, not turn the ball over, and lose a postseason game. Previous teams were 49-0 in the playoffs.” Not only was the Chiefs covering the 8.5 a statistical anomaly, but history suggests they should have lost that one outright. But the Chiefs won by 9 meaning our models missed on that one.
The other miss against the spread was on Sunday when the Orb backed the Ravens -1.5. I had a lot riding on this game personally as an avid Lamar believer but in the end, this one belonged to Josh Allen and the Bills. The game lived up to the hype in terms of giving us exciting moments down the stretch, but I don’t think either quarterback would say he played his best game. I have to imagine Ravens fans will take a while to get over that one, as I think the game was there to be won. Ultimately, it was a great win for Buffalo and the second-losing spread pick in these playoffs from the Orb model.
The biggest story of the weekend has to be Washington. Even during the regular season when we have updated data and a significant volume to predict against, moneyline picks are not our priority. But I am fine with the models missing more moneyline predictions if it means teams like the Commanders upset the #1 seed and continue their run against all the odds. That game truly had it all, and I no longer have a ceiling placed on how far I think this team can go. I was happy to be proven wrong and with no dog in the fight, I will be rooting for Jayden and this team to win it all regardless of whatever the models predict when I run them later this week.
Here is how each pick performed in the divisional round:
Spreads:
Texans +8.5 (Saturday - Premium) ❌
Ravens -1.5 ❌
All spreads: 0-2, 0%, -2 units
Moneyline:
Chiefs (Saturday - Premium) ✅
Lions (Saturday - Premium) ❌
Eagles ✅
Ravens ❌
All moneyline: 2-2, 50%, -1.465 units
Overall a -3.465 unit performance from the models in the Divisional Round. Is that bad? It seems bad.
From +1.6 units to -1.8 units overall, life comes at you fast when modeling. The good thing about starting 2-0 ATS last weekend is that our worst-case scenario played out this weekend and the models are still sitting at 50% and were a missed extra point away from being 3-1. The margins against Vegas are so small and that is what we hope to continue to use data to overcome. After a successful regular season, the Orb will need to win back 2 units between now and the Super Bowl to achieve the goal of also being profitable in the playoffs. Let’s get back on track with a winning Conference Championship performance next weekend!
- Team Orb Analytics
.
.
.
.
.
.
DISCLAIMER:
The information provided on this website is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be gambling or financial advice, and should not be relied upon as such. We are not responsible for any actions or decisions taken by readers based on the information provided on this website.
The picks and predictions provided on this website are based on our own research and analysis, and are intended to be used for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and we are not responsible for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information for gambling or other purposes.
By accessing and using this website, you acknowledge and agree to the terms of this disclaimer, and you assume all risks and liabilities associated with your use of the information provided on this website.