Divisional Round Newsletter and Picks
The Orb had a solid start to the playoffs as both our spread and moneyline models were profitable in Wild Card Weekend. Our models had a perfect performance on Saturday but were not able to follow it up in the Sunday and Monday games. The games themselves were underwhelming as all but the Lions-Rams game were blowouts. However, which teams won big was not necessarily expected by Vegas or the public. The Texans, Packers, and Buccaneers all went into their respective games as underdogs and pulled off the upsets. The most unexpected of them was Green Bay who were on the road in Dallas and given 7.5 points by the oddsmakers. The Cowboys finished the regular season 8-0 at home and went on to be the only home team to lose in the first round of the playoffs (via Adam Schefter). There were other statistical anomalies this wild card weekend that show how crazy and unpredictable the NFL can be. Cleveland led the NFL in total defense in the regular season and gave up 45 points to the Rookie CJ Stroud and company. On the other side of the ball, Miami finished the season first in total offense and put up just 7 points on the frozen field of Arrowhead Stadium (via ESPNNFL). Thankfully our models picked against both these teams in a great example of how predictive analytics can be more effective than descriptive analytics. Our models did miss on picking the Lions’ spread as they liked Detroit to cover the 3 points at home. The weekend then finished off on a down note as the Orb picked the Philadelphia moneyline against Baker and the Buccaneers. This Eagles' falloff from a 10-1 record this season has to be one for the record books. AJ Brown missed the game with an injury but I, and our models, expected at least something from their offense. Here is how each pick performed in Wild Card Weekend:
Spreads:
Texans +2.5 ✅
Chiefs -4.5 ✅
Lions -3 ❌
All spreads: 2-1, 66.7%, +0.818 units
Moneyline:
Texans ✅
Chiefs ✅
Bills ✅
Cowboys ❌
Lions ✅
Eagles ❌
All moneyline: 4-2, 66.7%, +0.449 units
Overall a +1.267 unit start to the playoffs for the Orb.
With just four games to choose from, we unfortunately don’t have as many picks to give out from our models. Interestingly we don’t have a consensus on either spread pick involving the #1 seed coming off the bye week. The rest vs. rust debate is one that we will never get a definitive answer on, but I generally lean on rest personally. However, our models saw what CJ Stroud and Jordan Love were able to do last week and are staying away from picking either side of the point spread. Model C even likes the Texans to win outright so we also don’t have an official pick on the moneyline of the first game this weekend. Here is what the Orb predicts will happen in the Divisional Round:
Spreads:
Lions -6.5
Chiefs/Bills - Premium Pick
Moneyline
49ers
Lions
Chiefs/Bills - Premium Pick
- Team Orb Analytics
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