Conference Championship Newsletter and Picks
All in all, it was a fun Divisional Round as each of the four matchups offered something a little bit different. The weekend started with a frustrating first half from the Ravens as it felt like they dominated but went into half-time tied 10-10 with the Texans. We saw a completely different team after the break as Lamar played like the (likely) MVP and the #1 defense made life hell for the rookie. This seemed like the right result to me, as fans of both teams should leave that game proud and excited about what their respective futures hold.
Next up the 49ers squeaked out a close one at home that really could have gone either way. He ended the game on a pick, but Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense caused problems for San Francisco’s defense right from the start. On the other side of the ball, Brock Purdy looked shaky most of the game and clearly was being impacted by the rain. Thankfully for him and all 49ers fans, handing it off to McCaffrey in the redzone has proven to be a quarterback-proof plan all season. Sunday’s opener was probably more exciting to gamblers than neutral viewers with the line set at 6.5 points. The Lions started to pull away in the 4th quarter going up two touchdowns but like they’ve done all season, the Bucs didn’t go down without a fight. They scored a late touchdown as the Lions’ defense had no answers for Mike Evans to bring it within 8 points. Because of analytics, Tampa Bay decided to go for the 2-point conversion rather than take the field goal which meant the spread came down to that play. If they converted, the Buccaneers most likely still would have lost, but they would have covered the point spread. Thankfully for the Orb, Baker underthrew the corner fade pass to Evans and we found ourselves on the right side of a close one.
Finally, the weekend ended with the highest anticipated matchup of the playoffs so far as the Bills hosted the Chiefs. It's rare that a game with this much hype actually lives up to it, but we were lucky to get another classic game. From start to finish, both teams were throwing haymakers and regaining the lead from one another. In the premium blog for the game, I wrote about how this was the biggest game of Josh Allen’s career so far, regardless of how he needed to come out with the win as a favorite at home. Good stats and almost keeping up with Mahomes is not good enough for someone who constantly gets compared to Patrick and other quarterbacks who have accomplished more than he has. When it mattered most, Mahomes made the plays to win and Allen didn’t. So far in their careers I believe this is what defines both of them in terms of each wanting to be an all-time great. Even though the pick didn’t go the Orb’s way, I was just happy to see such a fun and exciting game. Our models were perfect on the weekend going into the Bills game and unfortunately, this miss caused a 3.6 unit swing as what could have been a +3.098 unit weekend turned into a -0.505 performance. Here is how each pick performed:
Spreads:
Lions -6.5 ✅
Bills -2.5 ❌
All spread: 1-1, 50%, -0.091 units
Moneyline
49ers ✅
Lions ✅
Bills ❌
All moneyline: 2-1, 66.6%, -0.414 units
Overall a -0.505 unit performance in the Divisional Round for the Orb. With such few games and picks, one hit or miss can really be the difference between a winning week and a losing one. This is especially true for our moneyline models, as you need to basically go perfect to finish with a +unit performance on a smaller sample size.
Well the picks are in for the Conference Championship and I’ll be honest, they are looking square. Over the course of the regular season, our models gave out favorites and underdogs at a basically even rate. However, in the playoffs, they seem to be loving the favorites. It might be as simple as the playoffs are structured to give the better teams a home-field advantage, and more often than not the Superbowl seems to be played between two of the top seeds. Offense seems to travel fairly well in the NFL but even dominant defenses can look very different away from home. We saw this in Wild Card Weekend with the Browns as they got torched. Defensive metrics are weighed heavily in our models, and the #1 defense is playing at home. Here is what the Orb predicts will happen this weekend:
Spread:
Ravens -3.5
Moneyline:
Ravens
49ers
We did not have a consensus on the 49ers-Lions spread, as Models A and B predict San Francisco will cover the 7.5 points while Model C is backing the Lions. At the very least that stopped us from giving out the perfect square slate. Like last weekend let’s hope for some great games!
Finally, we are trying something new for the Superbowl and will be doing a giveaway! Andy Diamonds is putting together the final details but be on the lookout for more information about it in our Superbowl Newsletter. As a preview, if you’ve been following us on Instagram (@orb.analytics) and clicking on our “Moneyline Madness” interactive stories where you choose which team you think will win the game; you will have the chance to win money and we will also send money to a charity of your choice in your name. We want to do something fun that can give back to a member of the Orb community and also raise some money for a good cause.
- Team Orb Analytics
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